Thursday, January 23, 2020

Akey Bracket Composite - 01/23/2020

Hi! So sorry for the long wait! I've been very busy with classwork at the start of a new semester!

Here is today's (01/23/2020) ABC:

ABC Bracketology - 01/23/2020

About today's bracketology:
Business is booming for:
          -USC (15-3): The Trojans pulled off an upset at Stanford, and solidified a tournament spot for now. They have a big game against the Oregon Ducks tonight.
          -LSU (14-4): The Tigers haven't lost a game since December (ironically, to USC,) and have a few big wins in conference so far. Their win streak, including a recent win over Florida, has brought them up to a 5-seed. However, they have won almost every conference game by the skin of their teeth. Let's see if LSU can get some convincing conference wins in the future.
          -NC St. (14-5): NC St. has won five straight, many over fellow bubble teams. The wolfpack now find themselves as a 10-seed. However, will their weak SOS might not be able to hold them up if they stumble.
          -Honorable Mentions: Penn St., Iowa, Rhode Island, Mississippi St.

Dreams are crumbling for:
          -Arkansas (14-4): After losing to Kentucky, the Razorbacks dropped a crucial game in Starkville. Not only did this put Mississippi St. in the tourney, but it dropped the hogs all the way to an 8-seed. Arkansas has to take some big conference games that are coming up to move back up in the ranks.
          -Michigan (11-7): After their amazing non-conference showing, the Wolverines have dropped three straight games and are only 2-5 in Big Ten play. If Michigan can hold on here in conference, their out of conference SOS can definitely help boost them into the tourney.
         -Memphis (14-4): Oof. The Tigers are coming off an absolute clobbering at Tulsa. Memphis doesn't have much room for error, since the American is looking stronger by the day with Houston, Wichita State, Cincinnati, Temple, and now Tulsa (apparently.) Let's see if the Tigers can rebound from this ugly, ugly showing
          -Honorable mentions: UNI, Purdue, Texas Tech

-The ABC is not influenced by my opinons in any way. It is a formula that seeds teams based on a composite of rankings. More about it here.

Thanks for stopping by and reading!

A big shout-out to Bracket Matrix for including the ABC in their composite of bracketologists!

Sunday, January 19, 2020

Akey Bracket Composite - 01/19/2020

I hope this post finds you well. Here is this Sunday's ABC.

ABC Bracketology - 01/19/2020

A few things about todays bracket:
Business is Booming for:
          -Louisville: After their upset at Duke, the Cardinals move up to a top seed.
          -Houston: With a big win at conference leader Wichita State, Houston takes control of the American and moves up to a 6 seed.
          -Florida: A big win over Auburn gives the Gators a big win for their tournament resume.
          Honorable mentions: Kentucky, Arizona, UNI, DePaul
Dreams are crashing for:
          -West Virginia: The mountaineers only moved down two spots in the overall seed list, but their case for a 1-seed was incredibly damaged when they were embarrassed at K-State.
          -Butler: The bulldogs took on their second straight loss, this time to bubble team DePaul. They fell from a 2 seed to a 4 for now.
          Auburn:  Auburn failed to rebound from their loss at Alabama with another terrible performance at Florida. Even though they only have two losses, the Tigers are barely in the top 16 as of now.
          Honorable mentions: Ohio St., Wichita St., Stanford, Virginia Tech

-KPI will be included in the rankings regularly now.

-The ABC is not influenced by my opinions in any way. It is a formula that seeds teams using a composite of rankings. Thanks for visiting!

As always, a big thank you to Bracket Matrix for including the ABC in its bracketology!

Friday, January 17, 2020

Akey Bracket Composite - 01/17/2020

A surprise daily ABC post! Here is today's (01/17/2020) bracket!

ABC Bracketology - 01/17/2020

Notes for today's bracket:
-I won't do boomers and crashers today, since I mentioned some teams yesterday.

-UPDATE: I added KPI manually this time. You can probably tell since the seeds are quite a bit different than yesterday. Therefore, all metrics the ABC uses are in this ranking.

-The ABC is not influenced by my opinions in any way. It is a formula that seeds teams based on a composite of rankings. Thanks for reading!

A big thanks to Bracket Matrix for adding the ABC to their amazing composite of bracketologists!

Thursday, January 16, 2020

Akey Bracket Composite - 01/16/2020

Howdy. Here is the ABC Bracketology for this Thursday.

ABC Bracketology - 01/16/2020

A few notes about today's bracket:
Business is Booming for:
          -Seton Hall: with a terrific win at former 1-seed Butler yesterday, along with recent wins over Marquette and Xavier, the Pirates have found themselves at a 3-seed.
          -Wisconsin: The Badgers have won three games over ranked opponents in Big Ten play (Ohio St., Penn St., and Maryland.) After some ugly early-season losses, the Badgers are surging all the way up to a 5-seed!
          -Alabama: Although not in the field yet, the Crimson Tide went from a Tourney afterthought to the first team out after a huge win over undefeated Auburn. We'll see if they can string together some more conference wins and gain some leverage on the bubble.
Dreams are crumbling for:
          -Auburn: Even though it was their first loss, the 19-point loss last night at Alabama greatly damaged Auburn's 1-seed resume. They have yet to play many of the SEC's best, so there are opportunities left for the Tigers to impress.
          -Wichita St.: The Shockers were shocked at Temple for only their second loss on the year. The loss drops Wichita St. to a 6-seed.
          -Kentucky: Just after I praised the cats last time out, they went ahead and lost an ugly game to South Carolina, bringing them back towards the bubble. While I fully expect Kentucky will make the tourney, this UK team so far has not lived up to their blue-blood standard.

-The KPI rankings are not available yet for the composite, as they have not been posted on the KPI website and therefore cannot be automated (as far as my technical abilities,) and I do not have enough time to manually enter all of the team's metrics. I will add KPI to the composite as soon as the rankings are released online.

-I will post the bracketology as often as I can. Expect a full 353 team list every Monday.

-The ABC is not influenced by my opinion in any way. It is a formula that bases seeding on a composite of rankings.

Thanks for visiting!

A big thank you to Bracket Matrix for adding the ABC to their amazing composite of bracketologists!

Monday, January 13, 2020

Akey Bracket Composite - 1/13/2020

Hello all! Here is the first published ABC of the year.

ABC Bracketology - 01/13/2020

Full 353 Team ABC "Monday List"

Just a few notes on today's ABC.
-Big Risers:
          Illinois: With three straight wins over Big Ten teams in the tournament field (Purdue, Wisconsin, and Rutgers), Illinois has vaulted themselves from bubble territory to an 8-seed.
          Kentucky: With their Overtime win over Louisville and three straight wins to start SEC play, Kentucky has made sure (for now) that they will be in the tournament, as they normally are.

-Big Losers:
           Virginia: With consecutive ugly losses to Boston College and Syracuse, Virginia has fallen from a firm 7-seed to just missing the tournament. We will see if they can rebound with a big win over the Seminoles.
           Penn St.: With losses to Rutgers and Wisconsin, Penn St. has fallen from a top-16 team to a 9-seed. Expect there to be a lot of fluctuation with Big Ten teams this season.

-The KPI rankings are not available yet for the "Monday List," as they have not been posted on the KPI website and therefore cannot be automated. I will add them as soon as possible after they are released.

-I will try to post these frequently, maybe every other day. Expect a full 353 team list every Monday.

-Lastly, this composite is not a reflection of my opinions. It is a formula that bases seeding on a composite of rankings. Thanks for reading!

Thanks to Bracket Matrix for adding the ABC to their amazing composite of bracketologists!

Wednesday, December 18, 2019

About the Akey Bracket Composite (ABC)

Hi! Welcome to the Akey Brackets Blog.

One of the main focuses of this blog is regularly publishing the Akey Bracket Composite, or "ABC." The ABC is a method of bracketology for Men's NCAA Basketball. It compiles seven metrics the NCAA selection committee uses. These metrics are divided into two categories: results-based metrics, which rank teams based on their record and strength of wins, choosing the "most deserving" teams; and the predictive metrics, which rank teams based on efficiency and other advanced stats, choosing the "best" teams. These seven metrics are:



The NCAA actually uses all of these to make decisions, and even explored using a composite of six of these metrics before creating the NET ranking system instead. However, the initial tournament bracket using this system in 2019 did not follow the NET rankings very closely. Would a composite of these rankings be more useful, or accurate?

The Composite
The ABC has gone through the past few years of data and found how closely each of the above seven ratings correlates to the field the NCAA selection committee chooses. (NET has been used for only one year, so there is currently a small sample size for this metric. The years where RPI was relied upon more by the committee will be slowly discarded.) Using this data, each metric is given a historical multiplier based on how well they predict the bracket. Each team's seven rankings are multiplied by their corresponding multiplier and summed, creating an ABC Value.

These ABC Values result in a numerical reflection on the committee's customary decisions. By ranking teams with these values, we can create a consistent, less subjective method of bracketology.

Thanks for visiting!